系统性红斑狼疮患者产超广谱β 内酰胺酶大肠埃希菌感染的流行病学趋势及风险预测模型建立
作者: |
1祝燕萍,
1林海,
1李敏
1 上海交通大学医学院附属仁济医院检验科,上海 200001 |
通讯: |
李敏
Email: ruth_limin@126.com |
DOI: | 10.3978/j.issn.2095-6959.2018.10.021 |
基金: | 上海市卫生和计划生育委员会科研课题 (201840006)。 |
摘要
目的:探讨系统性红斑狼疮(systemic lupus erythematosus,SLE)患者产超广谱β内酰胺酶(extended spectrum β-lactamase,ESBL)大肠埃希菌感染的流行病学趋势及风险因素,并建立可靠的预测模型。方法:纳入2012年1月至2017年12月收治的感染大肠埃希菌的SLE患者。分析其感染的流行病学趋势及抗菌药物敏感性变化,同时根据多变量分析明确患者感染的高危因素并建立风险预测模型。结果:研究期间自SLE患者中分离出大肠埃希菌384株,其中产ESBL为212株(55.2%),菌株主要分离自泌尿系统标本(44.3%)。碳青霉烯类抗菌药物及阿米卡星对于产ESBL大肠埃希菌具有良好的抗菌活性(敏感性>80%)。经多变量分析提示11项ESBL大肠埃希菌感染风险因素,包括每日泼尼松剂量大于30 mg(OR=5.48;95%CI 3.12~13.72)、低补体3水平(OR=2.17;95%CI 1.62~6.71)、医院获得性感染(OR=4.12;95%CI 1.98~8.85)及ICU住院治疗(OR=4.16;95%CI 2.08~11.92)等。基于11项风险因素建立的预测模型准确性为85%,受试者工作曲线下面积为0.831(95%CI 0.755~0.892)。结论:SLE患者产ESBL大肠埃希菌感染率逐年增加,且伴有高度耐药;建立的风险预测模型准确性高,可以应用于临床高危SLE患者的筛查。
关键词:
系统性红斑狼疮;感染;超广谱β内酰胺酶;预测模型;大肠埃希菌
Infections caused by extended spectrum β-lactamase producing Escherichia coli in systemic lupus erythematosus patients: Prevalence and predictive model
CorrespondingAuthor: LI Min Email: ruth_limin@126.com
DOI: 10.3978/j.issn.2095-6959.2018.10.021
Foundation: This work was supported by the Shanghai Municipal Commission of Health and Family Planning, China (201840006).
Abstract
Objective: To investigate the prevalence and risk factors of infections caused by extended spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL) producing Escherichia coli (E. coli) in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients and develop a predictive model. Methods: Three hundred and eighty-four consecutive SLE patients with E. coli infection were enrolled in this retrospective case control study from January 2012 to December 2017. Prevalence and antimicrobial susceptibility pattern were analyzed. Multivariate analysis was performed by binary logistic regression model to determine the risk factors and the predictive model was developed based on it. Results: Of the total 384 isolates of E. coli tested, 212 (55.2%) produced ESBL. The majority of these isolates were from urine (44.3%). Carbapenems and amikacin had good activity against ESBL producing E. coli (>80%). Eleven variables were identified as independent risk factors for ESBL producing E. coli infection including daily prednisone dose >30 mg (OR=5.48; 95%CI 3.12–13.72), low C3 levels (OR=2.17; 95%CI 1.62–6.71), nosocomial acquired infection (OR=4.12; 95%CI 1.98–8.85), etc. The model developed to predict ESBL producing E. coli infection was effective, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.831 (95%CI 0.755–0.892). Conclusion: The prevalence of ESBL producing E. coli is increasing with high antibiotics resistance in patients with SLE. The model reveals excellent predictive performance and exhibits a good discrimination.
Keywords:
systemic lupus erythematosus; infection; extended spectrum β-lactamase; predictive model; Escherichia coli