文章摘要

SICH量表对自发性脑出血短期临床结局的预测作用

作者: 1张硕, 1马爽, 1李维帅, 1冯娟, 1郭阳
1 中国医科大学附属盛京医院神经内科,沈阳 110004
通讯: 郭阳 Email: guoy@sj-hospital.org
DOI: 10.3978/j.issn.2095-6959.2016.01.002

摘要

目的:探讨影响脑出血短期预后的相关危险因素,制订一个基于量表的自发性脑出血危重程度评价模式,并评估其对自发性脑出血短期临床结局的预测效能。方法:回顾性分析我院从2011年6月至2014年12月收治的自发性脑出血患者的临床资料。将可能影响短期预后的危险因素做单因素分析及Logistic回归分析,根据相关危险因素制定SICH量表,得出其预测自发性脑出血患者短期临床结局的预测效能。结果:年龄、GCS评分、血肿位置、血肿体积、收缩压范围、血肿破入脑室、合并症为自发性脑出血预后不良的独立预后危险因素,根据以上因素制订SICH量表,评分范围从0~8分。SICH量表诊断不良结局的最佳诊断界点是≥4,由此得出的Youden指数分别是0.61,ROC曲线下面积为0.88(95% CI: 0.85~0.91);诊断较好结局的最佳诊断界点是≤2,由此得出的Youden指数分别是0.55,ROC曲线下面积为0.85 (95% CI: 0.81~0.89)。结论:SICH量表可以对ICH患者进行危重程度的评估,并对短期临床结局的预测诊断效能较好。
关键词: 脑出血 危险因素 结局 预后 临床量表

The SICH score for prediction of short-term clinical outcome in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhages

Authors: 1ZHANG Shuo, 1MA Shuang, 1LI Weishua, 1FENG Juan, 1GUO Yang
1 Department of Neurology, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang 110004, China

CorrespondingAuthor: GUO Yang Email: guoy@sj-hospital.org

DOI: 10.3978/j.issn.2095-6959.2016.01.002

Abstract

Objective: To develop a scale of risk stratification for patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhages (ICH) and SICH score was proposed based on clinical and radiologic factors independent associated with short-term clinical outcomes. The diagnostic performance of SICH was evaluated. Methods: A retrospective study with ICH patients admitted to our hospital was performed during June 2011 and December 2014. Univariate analysis and Logistics regression were performed to determine the independent risk factors. The SICH score was developed with independent predictors and the predictive accuracy was assessed. Results: Independent prognostic factors associated with poor outcome were age, GCS, comorbidities, systolic blood pressure range, intraventricular hematoma, hematoma volume and location. The range of SICH was from 0 (best) to 8 (worst). A cutoff value of ≥4 and ≤2 for favorable and poor outcomes provided the best predictive performances, respectively. Accordingly, Youden’s index was 0.61, area under ROC was 0.88 (95% CI: 0.85~0.91) for poor outcome and Youden’s index was 0.55, area under ROC was 0.85 (95% CI: 0.81~0.89) for favorable outcome. Conclusion: The SICH score can accurately stratify ICH patients with regard to short-term clinical outcome, providing a favorable diagnositc performance.

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