文章摘要

妊娠期糖尿病产妇泌乳启动延迟发生风险的预测模型构建及验证

作者: 1罗凤娟, 1包能珍, 2李双辉
1 佛山市南海区第四人民医院产前区,广东 佛山 528211
2 佛山市南海区第四人民医院产科门诊,广东 佛山 528211
通讯: 罗凤娟 Email: luofengjuanfk@126.com
DOI: 10.3978/j.issn.2095-6959.2020.06.009
基金: 佛山市自筹经费类科技计划项目(2017AB000432)。

摘要

目的:了解妊娠期糖尿病产妇泌乳启动延迟(delayed lactation initiation,DOL)的临床现状及风险因素,并构建其简易风险预测模型,为妊娠期糖尿病DOL的临床护理提供参考依据。方法:通过方便抽样的方法选择2015年1月至2018年12月在佛山市南海区第四人民医院建档的388例妊娠期糖尿病产妇,收集产妇的一般人口学情况、分娩情况以及泌乳启动时间等数据资料,并应用SPSS 22.0软件进行统计分析。结果:388例妊娠期糖尿病产妇的DOL发生率为25.2%,通过单因素分析和logistic回归分析可构建包含高龄(≥35岁)、超重(BMI≥30 kg/m2)、早产(28~37周)、抑郁和焦虑5个风险因素的风险预测模型,各因素的风险评分依次为3,3,4,3和3,总分为0~16,依据有无DOL产妇的模型评分95%CI可以将风险模型划分为低危(<5分)、中危(5~8分)和高危(>8分)3个级别,对应的DOL发生率依次为8.1%,22.1%和53.4%。模型评分与DOL发生的ROC分析结果显示:其曲线下面积为0.757,95%CI为0.703~0.811,在≥6.5分时,其约登指数最大,为0.426。结论:妊娠期糖尿病产妇DOL的发生率相对较高,新建的风险预测模型具有一定的区分预测能力,临床护士可依据该模型及早进行预防护理。
关键词: 产妇;妊娠期糖尿病;泌乳启动延迟;影响因素;预测模型

Establishment and validation of a predictive model for the risk of delayed lactation initiation in pregnant women with gestational diabetes mellitus

Authors: 1LUO Fengjuan, 1BAO Nengzhen, 2LI Shuanghui
1 Prenatal District, Fourth People’s Hospital of Nanhai District, Foshan Guangdong 528211, China
2 Obstetric Clinic, Fourth People’s Hospital of Nanhai District, Foshan Guangdong 528211, China

CorrespondingAuthor: LUO Fengjuan Email: luofengjuanfk@126.com

DOI: 10.3978/j.issn.2095-6959.2020.06.009

Foundation: This work was supported by the Foshan Self-Financing Science and Technology Project, China (2017AB000432).

Abstract

Objective: To investigate the clinical status and risk factors of delayed lactation initiation (DOL) in pregnant women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), and to construct a simple risk prediction model, so as to provide reference for clinical nursing of DOL in gestational diabetes mellitus. Methods: A total of 388 pregnant women with gestational diabetes mellitus who were filed in our hospital from January 2015 to December 2018 were selected by convenient sampling method. The data of general demography, delivery and lactation start-up time of pregnant women were collected and analyzed by SPSS 22.0 software. Results: The incidence of DOL was 25.2% in 388 pregnant women with gestational diabetes mellitus. Through univariate analysis and logistic regression analysis, we can construct a risk prediction model including five risk factors: old age (≥35 years old), overweight (BMI ≥30 kg/m2), premature delivery (28–37 weeks), anxiety and depression. The risk scores of each factor are 3, 3, 4, 3 and 3 in turn, with a total score of 0–16. According to the model score of 95% CI with or without DOL, the risk model can be divided into three grades: low risk (<5 points), medium risk (5–8 points) and high risk (>8 points). The corresponding incidence rates of DOL are 8.1%, 22.1% and 53.4% respectively. The ROC analysis results of model score and DOL show that the area under the curve is 0.757, 95% CI is 0.703–0.811, and the Yoden index is the largest when the score is (>6.5 points), which is 0.426. Conclusion: The incidence of DOL in pregnant women with gestational diabetes mellitus is relatively high. The new risk prediction model has the ability of distinguishing and predicting. Clinical nurses can carry out preventive nursing according to this model as early as possible.
Keywords: parturient; gestational diabetes mellitus; delayed lactation initiation; influencing factors; prediction model

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